Heise Says
#recession #economy #heisesays
Fears are that Australia will enter a recession.
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The best solution to high prices is high prices. The market would surely take better care of it if they didn’t stuff around with rates in the dark.
I came to Oz recently and lived in a country near to Zimbabwe, saw the effect of nearly 900% inflation, when you went in to get a new car tyres and the quote was valid for 15 minutes. Let me start off and tell you, no you will not die, everybody around you will be as f67ked as you, when it goes down it goes down. No you do not need to prep for end of earth and arm yourself, no zombies will rise from graves. One very unique thing in Australia is elections every 3 years, this makes it far more difficult for the elites to embed stuff, hence why you are the lucky country. Just relax.
Subtract the increase in national debt and government fraction of gdp and Australia has been in decline for over a decade
The recession begun November last year , yes we are in a recession , next up comes a worldwide depression by design . The middle class is No more , Those earning less than 200k a year will find themselves living in poverty by 2026 .
Instead of " you won't own anything and be happy".
You westerners need " you won't buy anything and be happy".
Just stop consuming things guys.
They are putting up interest rates so the government can print money for centrelink and wars whilst keeping the currency strong.
Its funny you use the 'forest management' strategy analogy here. As someone who has worked in land management amongst other things, it was clear that they (local and state gov) don't like the idea of back burning enough, due to the "safety" culture overload. During the last bushfires I saw a property owner who cleared brush from his property, who was fined, manage to save his house from burning down. In fact the fire omitted his house entirely. By propping up the dead companies and insane debt-laden housing market we're just delaying the inevitable recession bushfire.
As someone who has had to trade through a major recession in the UK, that lasted nearly 8 years in the late eighties and early nineties, I can tell you that there is absolutely nothing good about a recession for either; the majority of the population or the economy. Anyone 'advising' you otherwise is talking out their arrse.
I have a superior tool for these idiots…a coin. Heads, rates go up, tails they go down.
Would probably work better than what they do now.
Recession is inevitable, either this year or after more inflation, if the RBA does a 180.
They'll keep putting them up. 4% by year's end
Dont spend but spend enough to not let businesses go under but dont spend too much but spend just a bit so we dont have supply issues but don't spend as it makes inflation worse but spend so we have competition so they wont need to inflate prices to make up for recession but dont spend because we need to slow inflation but spend enough for people to have a home but dont spend because it ruins the environment but spend more on expensive renewables but dont spend on inflating energy company bills….. and on and on…
We need a big hit to stop inflation in its tracks
They may go too far, they may do too little is just waffle that approves inaction
Why would you worry about the recession in Australia? Your land is the size of Europe with only 25 million subjects. You are so rich in mineral resources, making unbelievable profit. Unless you don't see that profit and there is corruption…
Hey Heise..fyi…a 2 bed unit in a duplex in third Ave, palmy, just sold for 800k.
Brisbane looks to be a long way from recession.
Basically it's been in hyperboom since covid.
The fact that we're still seeing OK GDP growth, despite the CPI deflator been so high is remarkable.
Realistically, as you say Heise, out population growth is going to be off the scale.
It's been obvious to me for some time, that we NEED a recession. We need another "recession we have to have".
I'm worried we WONT get a recession.
You can watch a video from "AustralianSuper boss says a recession is coming | The Business | ABC News", 7 months ago.
At the 3:40 mark, he says, by Christmas (2022), "If the inflation rate is stayed at 7%, you wouldn't expect interest rates to only be at 4%".
Yet here we are: 7.8% CPI well past Christmas, and the RBA rate at 3.35%.
No one forced people to go on a debt binge. Australia’s economy has not done well for a long time as it’s sustained and supported by immigration (population growth). We now have a huge issue of inflation in bedding as Australia has had to move slower on rates due to our circumstances – level of individual and gov debt, housing bubble forcing higher debt to own, lack of housing supply ( Airbnb is still an issue taking off houses and units off market), politicians having housing portfolios so seriously biased, lack of gov action on economy and housing. The can has been kicked so far down the road that it’s now stuck in cement and it forcing everyone to finally deal with all the economic factors that have not been dealt with earlier. I feel sympathy for everyone caught in it but I fear once more we may kick the can further and it will just be worse later on.
More money printing in Australia. 1 trillion property stimulus is need of the hour.
Other industries can collapse
Heise, may I suggest that you do some research into the economies of the 18th and 19th centuries. You will be very interested to learn the effects of "free market" economic models in practice.
And as a matter of interest, did you receive job keeper payments, or did you refuse them on the basis of ideology?
We've seen it all before.
A perr capita recession will happen and the media won't say anything negative. Neo liberal bs
I don't think Phil Lowe knows what the hell is going on, he looks like he is on "Crack-Cocaine" every time is speaks to the public, …….and i really don't think he will stop hiking the interest rates until we are well into a recession. Blind Freddy could see when Scomo had everybody in lock-down during Covid, and he was pumping everybody up with cash payments, ….and Phil Lowe dropped the interest rates down to almost zero, the economy was going to head into a disaster once everybody was released from lock-down, all cashed up, and told to go out and "Spend Up" big ……and THAT'S why we are all in this situation now !!!!!
80’s and 90’s?…….now houses are 3x the wages increases since then…..
APRA and the Banks are the problem…..
Central Banking is like meteorology, it makes future predictions by looking in the past!
It’s ass-backwards!
1st mistake people made when they Fomo'd into the market late was listening to the RBA.
''We will not raise rates till 2024'' if things do not change……………….guess what they did change and rather fast.
RBA where in there remit to make those promises burn and that is exactly what they did.
I have subscribed! Particularly because you are talking Australian Economy! I thank you for keeping your post under 10 minutes! Easy viewing! I'm a little older you, but blessed to still have my Dad, just days off 100 years old! I pick his brains, I have noted shortfalls and protected myself against them! And done many things to insulate myself from the calamity which I believe will start roughly end of March this year! 2023! I maybe wrong by a few weeks but I'm way closer than even Michael Burry, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger and Ray Dalio. They all said it would happen by now! Beaurocracy takes time! And China and Russia are playing 2 to 1 against the West and flogging them where they haven't even realised the damage! I personally hate British Imperialism, East India Company, crown owned back then! Now we have USA with 750 bases across the world outside their own territory! If that isn't a try at worldwide invasion what is? BRICS, now joined by Saudi, Egypt, and many more countries day by day! It's no longer petrol dollars, it's young dollars or rules dollars
Hello Heise, just a thought. What would happen if the younger generation gave up hope of ever buying a home and just kept on spending, lived with Mum and Dad, rented as a group. Just kept spending every dollar they make. Grandparents pass away, no one buys there homes, parents pass away, no one buys there homes. It would only take 2 generations.
Since 2019 Australia has had multiple quarters of depressed growth. So we have already been in and out of recession!
My advice for young people would be to sit down and do a budget. Cancel Netflix, Spotify and drinking Coffee from the cafe. Get off social media because it's actually brainwashing you to consume junk and ultimately be broke. If you need clothing, go to the OP shop or Kmart. Do not ever buy a vehicle with finance! Don't get the latest Mobile Phone on a Plan! Being frugal helps you too be less stressed so you can enjoy life more and sleep well at night. You can still own a Car & A mobile phone but just get the basic ones that do the job and keep you out of debt. Honestly so many people are freaking out right now because they are buried in debt and interest rates are going up. We are so programed to consume and go with the bullshit lies we are fed! Let me tell you it's very possible to get away from it all & free yourself! You can live a happy life full of laughs with minimal stress! So many people just living paycheck to paycheck, maxing out their Credit & Ultimately destroying their health & Wellbeing. No point in going crying to the Banks, they could not give one stuff about your circumstances, they love all this, and they continue to prosper.
A recession is when you go to the smoko shop and your the only customer. It’s been like that for a year.
Ive lived through a number of recessions , This period was so the corporation could regroup and readjust . So what is happening is the corporations are still adjusting by creating higher prices thanks to the war in Ukraine … Our governments will do absolutely nothing knowing the Voter / Taxpayer will do nothing but winge . The Banks are still riding high on massive profits and the Cowboys will go to court because they are still slanging off at each other …
I hate to say it but this country probably needs a recession. The housing speculator obsession has become a mental illness in many people and it needs to be fixed. A 5% cash rate should do the trick.
‘Doctor Phillip Lowe’…!!?!??
A doctor of fukkery !!!!????
If we live in a democracy , where majority rules…. Hahaha, How does doctor Phillip Lowe and his mates or ‘ghouls’ get to dictate our life style ???.
A democracy is a ‘ majority rule’ scenario…
Is it not?
It's All going down under, within 30-60 days your going to see 2-3 times houses for sale, as many are be under water soon
just imagine if all Australians got together and decided to boycott paying debt, we would find out real fast who holds the economic power