Walk The World In a special edition of Edwin’s Rant, we are joined by property analysts Louis Christopher from SQM Research. https://sqmresearch.com.au/
We look at the latest statistics and property trends and discuss where the markets are headed.
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Am I 1st? 🫠
This is going to be a ripper of a show 🧏♀️
Thanks for this. It’s important the rise in interest rates is not just seen as influencing or being influenced by real estate (as said here). There is a far bigger macro world than just real estate in NSW and VIC and if a few home buyers, re agents and builders get in a pickle, who really cares if food prices et al are out of control. Rates are not really in the hands of the rba and saying so, whilst it’s what average people want to hear, is very myopic, uninformed and unhelpful. Interest rates need to go as high as they need to go. Inflation above 7pc with interest rates below 4 is not a restrictive setting so if people in property go under, we’ll, you gotta wonder who’s really to blame there. What data has made your expert decide 4pc is as high as Australia can handle? No scientific basis for this position was given. A little introspection can be a good thing.
Why did clearance rates drop so low in 1990? Any guesses? Perhaps it's because back then the cash rate was actually where it was supposed to be relative to inflation, unlike in our situation. When monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive to curtail consumption (which includes housing) there's supposed to be a fear of buying in addition to a greater inability to buy. Yeah, there's some fear of buying now, but it's not what it should be based on where the economy is; something is out of alignment with market forces and that something is the cash rate.
Great chat. Enjoyed it. Poor Ed didnt say much.
Request for next time: Info on where are all the rental properties have gone? Recently there was an AirBNB map view of properties along the Mornington coast south of Melbourne. It was scary. 200k just in that area. Also reports of a huge amount of empty homes Australia wide. All this with expected students and new workers to come to Aus for workstudy! Where will theywe live?! Thoughts?
When vendors come to the realisation that we won't be having a cash rate below 2% for at least 3 years and what the implications are of such an elevated cash rate for asset values, they will start to change their tune about "holding out" for a "recovery."
Dumb and Dumber with Data.
Wage growth and percentage of debt is so so different now compared to the 70s. We are in uncharted territory
Edwin looks nervous!
Surely it doesn't matter if there's not much supply when people are struggling to get finance and create the demand for the elevated prices. Money isn't cheap anymore. Unless something major breaks, it'll just be a slow grind down in house prices for a couple of years before reversing.
Unfortunately the only way inflation comes down is by increasing rates as high as needed to crunch the consumer and actually cause an impact. No other way about it. If you think of all the Covid stimulus injected into the economy it's going to take alot to bring the balance back in line. What goes ridiculously up must come down. Pausing at 4% in my opinion is wishful thinking. They have been too soft bringing rates up trying to save everyone.
Even if there was an invasion of UFOs, at the speed of rates rising, inflation will push further above 10% by the end of the year, especially if the market is expecting 4%.
What a great view to what is really going on in this real estate market. This market is just replicating the 1988 crash and the market stayed very quiet if remember correctly for about six years. This was the time when the real estate industry lost a lot of very good real estate agents to other industries. Let's hope the good agencies stay this time and the not so good move on and it clears all the floated real estate business.
Louis doesn’t look overly impressed with Edwin’s waffle.
Here's interesting thought. Edward Dowd has done a huge amount of data collection and research on excess mortality in the US, UK, Europe and Australia. He is predicting a collapse in birth rates(already occurring), and a collapse in working population.
Add the collapse in population in China and what occurs to demand in the decades ahead?
Also, what IF China invade Taiwan. Do we sanction CCP officials that bought huge amounts of property in Oz pre 2017 before Xi's crackdown?
Hit the like people!
Louis was holding his main message right to the end and unfortunately it was an emotional manipulation. Which makes him a good addition to this Monday club of property spin doctoring. Edwin spreads wet dreams about solid line of high net worth Chinese individuals outside of his office wanting to buy that didn’t materialise as of today. Martin runs this show as a biased moderator and “property recovery” in local lingo means even less affordable prices.
Informative video. Thanks Martin!
Another example of the massive range of topics that are covered by this independent channel and programs which , explain in detail so much of the media savvy political doublespeak that are constantly thrown at the public at large . Also they provide reliable up to date data virtually on a daily basis , instead of the governments releasing the same data ranging anywhere from 3 / 6 / 12 months or more later or even on some occasions never . Further , this channel provides information on such a broad number of topics that , I can say with great confidence , after painstaking research , cannot be found on any other type of media outlets in the whole of Australia . Information that every Australian should easily have access to and have the basic human rights to know about , except in cases where legal confidentiality is justified , can only be found by the most remarkable people on this channel . With the utmost of respect and admiration for the selfless fine work that you provide for your love of our country and people and for all of the right reasons as you individually see them . From Robert Of Australia 🇦🇺.
Fascinating episode gentlemen, much better analysis and insights than you get from the mainstream. It’s a real witches brew out there. Rising interest rates that are already doing real damage but due to the lag effect we can only see the tips of icebergs and not what lies beneath the waves. Declining property prices yet raging rents (due to all the people coming from India and China to solve the so called skills shortages). In Sydney they are cutting bus services because they still can’t find enough drivers to earn 80-100K. But soon real estate agents and tradies and cafe owners will be driving buses and people who’ve come from India and China won’t find any jobs (and therefore won’t be able to pay rent and ultimately will return home) and that’s when the rubber hits the road.
Louis' final summation is spot on IMO.
Great show! Bring Louis more often please 🙂
The price of money drives inflation
Great show!!
You to love birds I love it keep up the great work 😉😉😉🙏👍😀
Well we have just learnt last week why the Sydney real estate market defies logic !!
Money laundering capital of Australia !!
First bust up last week found co that had laundered just on $10B a lot of it placed into property …. Amd there is said to be 3 more similar operations !!!
Great Australian dream taken away very easily
Australia is a country that does not stop this happening
$$$$$
Sums up the economy here perfectly
Brilliant lads
We know things are serious when … Martin is sitting allll the waaaaaay back of the camera.
The problem is it's still in it's "early days" … Daily fluctuations ….. It LL be more clear in a retrospective view … Again because of daily fluctuations
for sale sign went up on the house next door last thursday morning.
on friday morning the sign says Sale Pending.
Prolly keep an eye on oil production from Russia. The economic warfare continues.
Chris Joye predicts 70% house falls!
The US fed sets Australia’s interest rate.
The message still hasn't sunk in to the general population that the property party is over – permanently. We had an incredible run and pushed it way further than it ever should have gone, but it is done now. Next ten years will look nothing like the last twenty.
Excellent thank you.
I'm in the process of buying another home in the northern suburbs of Melb, Vic. However the seller is wanting a price that he could have gotten back 7 months ago at the peak. We are not getting much help from the agent in order for the seller to lower his expectations. It's currently vacant so the seller much be losing money day by day. How do you buy a home when the seller does not want to sell?
The things I see driving inflation
1. Mining industry that is sucking up the tradies
2. Super low interest rates that have supercharged “liar loans”
3. Bank of mum and dad that has kept the Ponzi scheme going
4. Immigration pushed into Sydney Melbourne other capitals to make up for skill shortages and aging population but has had several effects in creating infrastructure issues and housing issues
Nobody is talking about the elephant in the room, the dollar. On the face of it, and for very good reason, all the talk surrounding central banks the world over, is only with regard to how far central banks will go to curb inflation.
But monetary policy is not just a tool used to control inflationary pressures. It's also a tool used to manage the value of a nation's currency.
The world over, governments have raised the levels of public sector debt to ridiculous heights over the past three years. Australia is no exception.
This means that now, more than ever, nations are going to seek to maintain or even increase the value of their currency. Once again, Australia is no exception. And one of, if not the only way of pro-actively achieving that is via interest rates.
I think that it is very possible that even in the event that inflation returns to acceptable levels and unemployment starts to rise, rates mightn't fall too much at all, despite what the experts are saying. Interesting times, that's for sure.
"live by the housing market, die by the housing market" – Australia 2024
Higher for longer economic damage by design. Base rate will hit 7% and stay there. How else do you raise a military
I wonder how many property speculators aka first home buyers are rushing to the banks to get a margin loan to buy property now?
that makes intrest will be at 13%
No podcast link Martin?
ED has no mirrors in his house. They all cracked!😁
Bond market has exploded higher again. Rates will go higher.
Can I opt for 50% inflation now it would be cheaper than the increase in my mortgage 😂😂😂😂
I am interested to know if anyone knows what is happening to stress levels of the bank of mum and dad, as the media stressed how big a part they played over the last couple of years