Breaking Points
Saagar breaks down new information coming out of China on troubling signs for their demographics.
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Yes
Actually wondering if COVID will HELP China's population problems.
Why?
Because who gets killed predominately from Covid?
Old People
What demographic does China have too much of?
Old People
Its morbid, but old people don't add economically once they retire, they just hold a position in real estate and consume a small amount.
Will it enable China to keep growing its production rate, no. But it would be less of a burden on the Children of those old people.
I'm still trying to play catch up on Ziehan, but I consider Peter to be in the high 80's on his assessments. That's still high. There aren't many out there in the high 90's. Those who are tend to stay in specific contexts and specialize if you will. Peter is in the high 80's in a wider array of subjects which makes his brand relevant.
I think Peter is on the mark with China, but for different reasons than I've come up with. Peter for example, is fine with processed foods. I think the quality of the world food supply has dropped significantly world wide and is one of the top 5 world's biggest threats to humanity and is a huge problem going forward for every nation including China specific to a high carb low fat diet overall.
Peter is right about most things concerning China… the real estate bubble that is deflating there is unique, though and he could have better explained it. Chinese real estate became worth more than the U.S., Europe and Japan combined, a monster bubble, the largest valuation to earnings in world history. Some cities crested at 45x annual earnings, stupid stupid valuations. Japan become the second largest world economy through it's real estate bubble paired with a stock market that approached 65x earnings fit with government corruption, all of it and then spent the next 30 years trying to recover with demographics now haunting them and public debt to GDP leading the world. One lost decade turned into 3. Japan has yet to pass it's peak from 32 years ago.
Is this the way of China? I think so, yes. Their real estate bubble is more inflated than Japan's by a country mile. In 10 years, China will have highly unfavorable demographics. I wouldn't necessarily call China "done" just yet, but their moon is in wane. It's not a healthy population which is why their birth rate has fallen. It's less economic than we might think. I think most of us are underestimating what a high carb diet is doing to overall health and fertility rates.
In the U.S. for example, pre diabetes and diabetes is 48.7% according to the CDC. That's a real number. This doesn't factor in the years of insulin resistance before pre diabetes kicks in. China has higher numbers than the U.S. and this isn't all of it. The smog and pollution is taking it's toll on fertility rates in China. China's human health declines coupled with their real estate bubble deflating is leading to their decline even more so than demographics over the next few years. As a consequence, we are witness to China slipping just past the peak of their power but China still has power. There's a high percentage of the population between 40 and 50 years old, a productive age to be in still.
Throughout history, massive population declines have typically resulted in longer life spans and better economic opportunities for the survivors. Such events include the Black Death, the Great Depression, The Spanish Flu, famines around the world, including China. Japan post WW2, and many more examples. Don't forget, the globalists keep telling us we need to reduce the global population. Think about it, are people going to be wandering around homeless in a country when the population is reduced by millions every year? Nope. Sure, a country may not be the "economic powerhouse" it once was or strived to become, but its people will be happy.
That's a bunch of BS. All Chinese have to do is to announce a huge credit for each child born, then baby boom will commence, immediately
GYNA!!!!!!
Zeihan makes 100 predictions a day, eventually there will be a few that come true. There's nothing scientific about that.
Nope. He hasn’t been right about China yet. Everyone of these China is going to collapse guys have gotten it wrong. Just like they did about sanctions against Russia.
China and Russia aren’t going under, WE ARE.
A country with 1.4 billion and the pseudo intellectuals tell us China is going to fall apart becuse the don't have enough people—-Fools!!!
America will collapse, not China, not Russia. What's the affixation with China? Sounds like you are a puppet for the CIA always showing us negativity about China. I put my money on China, I put my money with Vlad, Piss on you, I love China and the Chinese people. The Russians are my brothers & sisters. Go spread your propaganda to a more uneducated audience.
If China collapse America won't fair as good as he likes to put it. He's very pro America. If America keep spending all this money on defense budget soon we won't have anything worth defending.
I think his calculation are wrong, the demographic crisis is overblown, uk is compensating with immigration most of it illegal.
I heard this silly demographic crisis all the time. I can tell you for sure this is not a problem for at least 10-20year for a simple fact: Chinese worker Retirement age is 50 for women and 60 for man. And there are more more women than men I. Factory. So increasing retirement age to 65 can buy China 10 years and 15 years for 70. The other solution is automation. With 5G and smart factory there is much less needs for manpower. Over all it is good news China has population decline. It is way overpopulated for its environment.
Thing is -Ziehan is right , if every factor remains constant then china may collapse
But, will china collapse -No
Who made china , who funded china west,
West has too much stake in China ,they will not let it collapse
China is just too big to fail -just like sub prime banks in 2008. usa has learnt its lessons from Lehman brothers collapse
Just like Pakistan ,just like Nazi Germany ,just like USSR ,just like third world countries in Africa and Latin amarica ,Just like Venezuela , just like Iran
China will limp for some time and regain it's position very soon after partial setbacks,
Global markets are not run as free market but as manipulated market
🇺🇸 WIHO GIVES A DAMN ABOUT CHINA…. WORRY ABOUT USA POPULATION DECLINE FOR DECADES. ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION/ MASS SHOOTINGS. MENTAL HEALTH . POOR EDUCATION. GIGANTIC DEFICITS. OUR LIBERTIES TAKEB AWAY. WE CANT PROTEST WITHOUT BLACK VANS KIDNAPPING PEOPLE IN AMERICAN!
Straight line extrapolations always fail. Zeihan is doing straight line extrapolations. Also look at how societies in Europe recovered from the massive demographic imbalances post WW1 and WW2.
🇺🇸 DOESN'T MATTER IF YOUR LEFT OR RIGHT…. THE PROPOGANDA TO HATE CHINA IS AMAZING. HERE IN THE USA …AN ILLUISION OF FREEDOM. ILLUSION OF AMERICAN DREAM….ALL PROVIDED BY CIA, NSA, AND MILITARY.
Older generations made it harder for younger people to get good jobs with good pay. Old man in the 50's was able to easily get an engineering job in his day but now requires years of experience and certificates and with lower pay… Corporate greed is the cause of this. Let the younger generation get education and jobs without crippling debt so they want to get married or at least have kids.
Well, again, “duh” – Zeihan got his start with Stratfor (George Friedman). Friedman wrote a book – “The Next 100 Years” (1992, I think), which detailed much of the demographic disaster that is currently being experienced. Zeihan is spot-on.
It's about time Sagar took an open-minded view again. 👏
The notion that Russia "has no friends" is just wishful thinking. He's obviously not paying attention to BRICS and other organizations that Russia is part of.
Sorry, but Covid is not ripping through China. I live here and the first wave basically ended two weeks ago. Almost everyone got Covid, and relatively few people got very sick or died. I have friends and family all over the country.
The demographic issue is real, however. But human beings are incredibly innovative. I’d like to see you reference some critics of Peter Zeihan’s thesis. Maybe speak to a Chinese person not affiliated with the CCP. There are plenty. Unless you can get some kind of debate of issues going this isn’t a discussion. It’s a narrative.
The western media is basically terrible on China. The narrative is the same no matter what’s going on. And a lot of the coverage is just nonsense
I am so confused….less people or lower economic growth will lead to the following:
1.) Lower cost of housing.
2.) Lower cost of food.
3.) Reduce environmental pollution (cleaner air, water, and soil).
4.) Slow down resource consumption.
And so many other things, if you don't believe me double the amount of people in your housing and see what happens….or even add just one person.
Their economy is built on matchsticks and lies and they're about to suffer the greatest demographic collapse in the history of the world.