Walk The World Today’s afternoon chat with journalist Tarric Brooker focusses on the question of whether inflation is really falling, or whether the markets are mis-reading the data streams.
You can follow along with Tarrics slides at: https://avidcom.substack.com/p/charts-that-matter-3rd-february/
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Martin's dogs have the right idea: don't do what's not good for you. Humans override that instinct with wants, desires etc
I think the Fed anticipated the rise in travel. Didn’t they rescue Carnival after all.
I think it would be a good policy for the central bank to raise interest rates causing a housing crash.
Then the central bank should buy property directly from home owners at the price the home owner paid for them. This would bail out home owners. Then the central bank should sell the properties back to the public at a much lower prices. This would solve the housing affordability crisis
When society collapses … Hope some alchemist can reverse convert those gold silver and most importantly Crypto coins
At 44:00, perhaps there's a sense in "the Haves" camp that one "may as well spend" because they anticipate more inflation ahead – ? Afterall, it's easy-won wealth so they're more likely to "play" in the system. Even if those on the upside of the K-shape take out loans, it's still potentially hedging against future inflation: they get a hard asset with utility, but can afford a loan which they can pay out overnight if IRs skyrocket. When you have wealth, it's all play money, so the risk profile is entirely different. As we keep seeing, the Haves are living in an entirely different world to those who actually work (produce, deliver) in the economy, and they are motivated mostly by a desire to minimise the impacts of inflation. The rest of us are praying not to be crushed.
Great update gents. Just a small suggestion – I find myself trying to read and understand what the charts are when they first come up and I miss the dialogue in that process. Perhaps a brief description of the chart before the analysis might be good?
Inflation hasn't moderated because all the figures the government releases are backward looking; my rent went up over a year ago, the cost of my shopping has come down compared to a year ago and my energy prices are lower than a for instance. You can't use monetary policy to change any of these prices.
The forward looking indicators, such as the household surveys, suggest deflation because households are coming up against balance sheet constraints.
"The government will save us" mantra has made people take on FAR TOO MUCH RISK. We are at the tipping point.
They will print to infinitie before they will let housing crash! 1m migrants a year whatever it takes they have already destroyed this country societies are non existent.
The Manheim Used Vehicle value looks like it's forming a head and shoulders top pattern.
Martin and Tarric can you please talk about the impact on Australia and the Global economy of China losing 400-600 million people. Watch Lei's Real Talk YT Channel on China's true population.
Imagine AFL goal posts but they are opposite. The centre posts are 2 points (2% inflation) and the outer posts are 8 points (8% inflation).
The RBA keeps kicking a “behind”!
The cash rate has only gone from an insane level of 0.1% to 2008 Emergency level of 3.1% and we are concerned about a property crash. They are not even at tightening levels yet. Who cares about the 15% that may lose their house. Shouldn’t we be looking after 100% who are affected by high inflation which is actually at 15% if measured the same as in the 80’s. GM
Boomers may hold the vast majority of pandemic savings. Some of us are doing so in anticipation of backstopping our MIllenial kids when their sub-2% interest $1m TFF fixed rate mortgages more than triple on obligatory refinancing later this year. No way will we spend like drunken sailors until we know their bank negotiations won't send them to the wall. We may not give them cheap loans, as they need to learn a lesson about responsible borrowing. There are other ways we can help provided we remain cashed up, like paying school fees or giving grandkids holidays.
Home & contents insurance up 20% for 2023
Will the government do what's good for long term Economic health OR whatever it takes to save the housing market and their own political position? That's a no brainer and also why your logical and reasonable views/predictions have been pretty much wrong for many years. You can count on the Australian government (either mob) will continue with short term cynical policies every time.
Inflation is here to stay for an extended period of time in the West.
A Boomer-powered economy… That sounds about right.
Rba and the Westminsterclowns are all participants in the fools errand of printing a billion idiots to stopgap the colossus of failure in their core reasoning.
Crazy to think mortgage arrears are still so low. At record lows.
– A LOT OF people are mistaken when they think that rising inflation is the driver behind rising interest rates. The australian and the american Mr. Market are quite adament. The RBA & FED are going to cut rates later this year. When ??? Mr. market will tell us in advance …………..
– The used car market in the US is in DEEP trouble. In e.g. 2020 & 2021 banks were willing to "trade back and forth" car loans. Now in late 2022 banks have seized this "trade". Banks aren't willing to buy any "car paper" anymore.
– In 2020 & 2021 US banks/lenders were willing to lend 140% of the value of a car to a borrower because in those 2 years there was ashortage of used cars and car prices kept rising. But now with falling car prices lenders are only willing to lend 80% of the value of the car. Additionally lenders want to see (much more) proof that a borrower has a stable income.