The Inflation Headfake: Or Something More?

The latest US data on CPI, jobless claims, inventory and producer prices are all signaling potentially lower inflation. Yet the markets still hold to their view of a hike this month in July, as signaled by the FED, and possibly another later.

So what’s going on?

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  1. The US is a special case. While the US imports about 7 million barrels of oil a day it exports very light crude and products. The tight oil produces large amounts of natural gas and condensates. Energy costs in the US are lower than the rest of the world excepting the Persian Golf. While Australia has reserves of coal and gas, mismanagement by successive governments Australia is paying global prices for its own fuel, and imports 90% of liquid fuel needs. Australian manufacturing contributes almost zero to GDP.

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