Walk The World More analysts are now talking about mortgage stress. How ever you define the concept (we prefer cash flow metrics) things are getting worse. So ahead of our next batch of updates on Tuesday, we look at what some other analysts are saying.
https://www.amp.com.au/insights-hub/blog/investing/econosights-mortgage-stress-in-australia
Perhaps, better late than never they are now understanding things I have been highlighting for some long time!
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I hope you would not be away for too long.
You've prevented me from FOMOing in during the TFF craze.
It's likely lots of people in banking and government knew this was to happen. It's the chosen plan to reduce inflation. Pity those who gained most from the response to Covid aren't paying for their gains now – instead they'll wait around like vultures for the relatively cheap houses that recent FHBs will be forced to sell. I thought we voted in a Labor government but it's hard to notice any difference so far.
Do you think the crash will be worse than 2009?
Starting to see and lot more listing popping up, also seeing a lot of the cheaper places getting snapped up quick. That means the people who are trying to sell and lock in their 200-500k profits before prices drop like a rock.. are struggling to find buyers. Which will drive the high end properties down to more affordable levels. Great news, good to see a lot of the people who like to use leverage without learning about the other side of it… getting schooled. People will work out soon that properties are expensive to own, and only have been great due to people buying up more then their fair share.. 880k vacant still ? 👍. Great to see, if anyone is trying to buy… wait for a year or two, let these over leveraged chumps do all the heavy lifting towards more attractive entry points.
The agony of a barely affordable endless mortgage reminds me of the mythical bird that, like the banks, picks away at the liver forever.
Thanks Mr. Martin…yes a pity but these people signed for these insane amounts during a long term fall in interest rates…it was always going to rise because of the bubble…Australians don't want to admit they have bought into Snake Oil spruiking. Rampant deflation is here!
I would cut down on my discretionary spending if a did any discretionary spending 🤷♂️
This will be Australia's swan song. Migrants and the weathy have a ready supply of offshore cash, a decline won't impact them at all. Australians living in the fast lane will pay the price for successive governments failres by opening the door to enormous migration, let's face wealthy Asians. Sydney is already becoming the next Beijing slum. Closely followed by the Mafia in Melbourne. Want to even, pull your money out of the big 4 and look at your local bank.
Property spruikers will think of more reasons to boost the market.
So if you look back at the chart to 2008 we have nothing to worry about. The can can be kicked a lot longer before any sort of minor problems arise.
Philip Lowe prints hundreds of billions, lends to irresponsible Government, entices people to borrow, jacks up rates, then blames workers for inflation
93 k for a Victorian terrace on Lawson st Redfern in 94.
Demand a Glass Stegal type seperation of banks lest all of it goes to Hades.
Financial Analyst = Lagging Indicator
DFA = Leading Indicator!!
Pray ye don't need a dentist i just got quoted $4100 to save a tooth. Root canal and cap.
My theory
Suicides seem to happen in waves
Interest rates and suicides are in synch. The suicides come a few years after interest rises.
Suicides and interest rates are synced.
Forced sales come with a rush when unemployment rises. Mortgage holders will get a 2nd job if needed to save their house. Take away their primary jobs and look out. RBA is already forecasting unemployment to reach 4.5%, and that's with no recession.
Tell ur mates Martin if they want to live in Lithgow it's just like English weather
Lithgow needs immigrants to improve the place
And Edwin's up the mountain too
Would be nice if there was a website stating how much is owed on every property in Australia.
Who knew?
Negative/positive wealth effects due to property prices is a con propagated by the housing industries.
Nothing to see here. Depression Financial Analytics, how are you enjoying your property profit, hypocrite?
At the heart of Colorado River crisis, the mighty 'Law of the River' holds sway
Does that data regarding savings include super?
Love your work Martin, but the 30 day is saying 4.1+ in Q3, and with AUD/USD at 0.673 and falling, the RBA doesn't have a lot of room to move. 50 basis points in March? Anyone??
Mortgage Stress is targeted at mortgage holders but ignores the moral stress it has for those directly related to people with a mortgage. When people are enslaved to the big banks and may not have a roof over their head, the households may resort to crime because the sin of envy has come home to roost. Such a sin and the penalty for it is a lot more universal than people's love of money.
Bank of Evil
(formerly Lehman Bros)
Good show Martin 😀
One difference between you and other youtube economic commentators is that you never do a show on nothing lol
Some of them just rehash stuff they have already said because they have nothing new, that is so annoying
Anyway, how about getting an apprentice when you get back home
I like what Rebel Capitalist does with young bloke Josh, a bit of young blood broadens outlook and appeal
He doesn't do it right though, you would do it better
Cheers
There are obviously limits to banks risk appetites when borrowers are 6 times more likely to be foreclosed if they are in negative equity.
Its all happening for the Top End of Town………Well done ya scum!
It'll be like one of those US high speed highway traffic accidents in winter, with 300+ vehicles involved, fires and mass death.
I have no sympathy for those who bought anywhere from late 2019 to now who cry poor me. I was ready to buy, but couldn’t see any value in VIC due to the high amount I would have to had borrowed. Now ready to buy but not looking at a loan of huge values and ready to poor cash in to it to get a roof over our heads and have it paid off in 10 years even with the high interest.
Sacrifice them and their first born to the banks appetite for greed.
It's their own fault, these outcomes stem from their own ideological reasoning. The politics they cheer in favour of. Fire them off